In a staff discussion notes titled—"Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work", the publicarion authors of the IMF said, "Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies."
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies at greater risk but also better poised to exploit AI benefits than emerging market and developing economies. In advanced economies, about 60% of jobs are exposed to AI, due to prevalence of cognitive-task-oriented jobs.
A new measure of potential AI complementarity suggests that, of these, about half may be negatively affected by AI, while the rest could benefit from enhanced productivity through AI integration. Overall exposure is 40% in emerging market economies and 26% in low-income countries.
Although many emerging market and developing economies may experience less immediate AI-related disruptions, they are also less ready to seize AI’s advantages. This could worsen the digital divide and cross-country income disparity.
About 40% of workers worldwide are in high-exposure occupations; the share is 60% in advanced economies, which indicates potentially large macroeconomic implications.
The IMF publication further said that it doesn’t see a future where AI displaces jobs like surgeons, lawyers, and judges — highly intricate roles that can’t just be handed off to unsupervised tech, thanks to legal and ethical barriers.
The UK has a significant portion of employment in professional and managerial occupations, which exhibit high exposure and high complementarity, and in clerical support workers and technician occupations, generally high exposure and low complementarity. In India most workers are craftspeople, skilled agricultural workers, and low-skilled, or “elementary” workers; most of these are in the low-exposure category.
In most countries, women tend to be employed in high-exposure occupations more than men. Because this share is distributed approximately equally between low- and high-complementarity jobs, the result can be interpreted to mean that women face both greater risks and greater opportunities, at the same time. Exceptions to this pattern may be attributed to high shares of women in agricultural jobs, especially in countries where the farming sector is large (for example, India).
The UK has a significant portion of employment in professional and managerial occupations, which exhibit high exposure and high complementarity, and in clerical support workers and technician occupations, generally high exposure and low complementarity. In India most workers are craftspeople, skilled agricultural workers, and low-skilled, or “elementary” workers; most of these are in the low-exposure category.
In most countries, women tend to be employed in high-exposure occupations more than men. Because this share is distributed approximately equally between low- and high-complementarity jobs, the result can be interpreted to mean that women face both greater risks and greater opportunities, at the same time. Exceptions to this pattern may be attributed to high shares of women in agricultural jobs, especially in countries where the farming sector is large (for example, India).
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