Climate change is expected to impact future renewable energy production, more specifically — Solar and Wind —, and the potential of these green energies over the Indian landmass are likely to face a negative trend in coming times and it is due to climate change, said a new study by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), an autonomous scientific institute based in Pune, that engages in expanded research in the tropical Indian Ocean with special reference to monsoon meteorology, and air-sea interaction of South Asian climate.
Among various renewable energy components, wind and solar, are sensitive to even small changes in atmospheric conditions and therefore, to climate change.
The study report highlights that investors in Solar & Wind Energy sector should understand and consider possible changes due to climate change. The study by IITM analyze the future wind and solar energy potential over the Indian landmass using climate model ensembles.
If the return of investments (RoI) during other seasons is not profitable, the dependence on renewable energy may be reduced, said the study titled 'Analysis of future wind and solar potential over India using climate models'.
Interesting to note that, IITM has one of the largest computational capacities of India as well as a supercomputer called 'Pratyush'. With IITM, India is the fourth country in the world to have a High-Performance Computing (HPC) facility dedicated to weather and climate research, after Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Regional analysis of wind potential indicates that the frequency of high energy producing wind speeds will decrease, whereas low energy producing wind speeds are likely to increase in the future. On the other hand, solar radiation is estimated to decrease (10–15 Wm–2) over the next 50 years during all seasons.
With the estimated decrease in future wind and solar energy potential, expanded and more efficient networks of wind and solar farms are needed to increase renewable energy production.
Regional analysis of wind potential indicates that the frequency of high energy producing wind speeds will decrease, whereas low energy producing wind speeds are likely to increase in the future. On the other hand, solar radiation is estimated to decrease (10–15 Wm–2) over the next 50 years during all seasons.
With the estimated decrease in future wind and solar energy potential, expanded and more efficient networks of wind and solar farms are needed to increase renewable energy production.
Wind Energy
Climate change can induce inter-annual variations that affect wind dependence over existing and future energy grids.India mainly receives majority of its wind energy during the southwest monsoon and solar energy during the pre-monsoon season. Previous climatic analysis has reported that the wind potential over India is likely to be affected because of the Indian Ocean warming.
In future, seasonal and annual wind speed is likely to decrease over North India and increase along South India, said the study titled 'Analysis of future wind and solar potential over India using climate models'.
The researchers used state-of-the-art climate models devised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyze the wind and solar projections for the renewable energy sector over the Indian subcontinent.
Regional analysis of wind potential indicates that the frequency of high energy producing wind speeds will decrease, whereas low energy producing wind speeds are likely to increase in the future.
The southern coast of Odisha and the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu show promising potential for wind energy in the climate change scenario.
The researchers used state-of-the-art climate models devised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyze the wind and solar projections for the renewable energy sector over the Indian subcontinent.
Regional analysis of wind potential indicates that the frequency of high energy producing wind speeds will decrease, whereas low energy producing wind speeds are likely to increase in the future.
The southern coast of Odisha and the southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu show promising potential for wind energy in the climate change scenario.
Solar Energy
The Indian subcontinent receives maximum solar radiation during the pre-monsoon months and minimum during the winter months. As per latest report, India added 513 MW of solar open access capacity in Q1 2022, which is 58% higher quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) compared to 324 MW installed in Q4 2021.Solar projections for the future indicate that solar radiation will decrease during all seasons over most of the Indian landmass. For future investments in the solar power sector, central and south-central India must be considered during pre-monsoon months, as the potential loss is minimal in these regions.
As per the study, which used climate model CORDEX for simulations, an increase in solar radiation along southern India is observed, whereas the rest of the country did not show any significant variations.
North-western India, where the maximum number of solar farms are located, showed reduced future projections of solar radiation throughout the year, except for the pre-monsoon months.
The only regions which showed an increase in future solar projections were Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
The future solar radiation would reduce all over the country. Western India showed less variations during the prominent solar potential months of pre-monsoon, while eastern India showed reduction in solar radiation throughout the year.
The only regions which showed an increase in future solar projections were Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
The future solar radiation would reduce all over the country. Western India showed less variations during the prominent solar potential months of pre-monsoon, while eastern India showed reduction in solar radiation throughout the year.
It is to be noted that there are innovations in solar panels components, where the panel does not need direct sunlight and can produce electricity even when not facing much of the sun.
For Investors
Cost reduction for new wind farms and solar fields has made drastic changes in the investment in recent years. Studies that examine the possible changes in wind and solar potential over the Indian region are limited in the literature.
As climate change is expected to impact both wind and solar potential in the future, there is a requirement for proper documentation of the results from climate model simulations. This will help the investors in this sector to carefully plan their investments, which are expected to significantly increase in the next 30–40 years in the Indian region.
For future investments in the solar power sector, central and south-central India must be considered during pre-monsoon months, as the potential loss is minimum in these regions.
As climate change is expected to impact both wind and solar potential in the future, there is a requirement for proper documentation of the results from climate model simulations. This will help the investors in this sector to carefully plan their investments, which are expected to significantly increase in the next 30–40 years in the Indian region.
For future investments in the solar power sector, central and south-central India must be considered during pre-monsoon months, as the potential loss is minimum in these regions.
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